ERROR BLINDNESS

The inability to see when we are wrong.  

No one ever says “I am wrong.” 

“While being wrong is happening, you are oblivious to it,” Katheryn Schultz 

Being Wrong, a 2010 book by Katheryn Schultz, is one of my favorites, and one I refer to frequently. She says, “As soon as we know that we are wrong, we aren’t wrong anymore, since to recognize a belief to be false is to stop believing it.”

Schultz continues: “Perception is the interpretation of sensation. Interpretation implies  wiggle room — space to deviate from literal reading, whether of a book or of the world.  Every step in the interpretive process represents a point of potential divergence between our minds and the world — a breach where mistakes can sneak in.”

Wiggle room is always present with interpretation. What we believe involves interpreting what we see. And beliefs become behavior. To interpret is to explain the meaning of. Explaining the meaning of what we believe, or what someone else believes is full of wiggle room.  

Error blindness, of course, has always been with us. What makes it so important now is because we have a president who never believes he is wrong. He is a national example of error blindness. His inability to see he is wrong (error blindness) is obvious. Every time Trump lies, he is wrong and in error. His error blindness is obvious — to others. While his being wrong is happening, Trump doesn’t see it. 

The good news is that Trump is demonstrating error blindness for the world to see. Since it is easier to see error in others, many are seeing error blindness being displayed. The bad news is that describing and demonstrating error blindness to others isn’t demonstrating and describing error blindness to himself. It is easier to see the blindness in others than it is to see it in oneself.

In the mind’s eye is where we see things. This is where interpretation thrives. It is called one’s worldview: “The overall perspective from which one sees and interprets the world; a collection of beliefs.” Interpretation is where wiggle room and error blindness reside. How we see and interpret the world is determined by our beliefs. And then beliefs become behavior. Wiggle room and error blindness complicate interpretation in everyone. When interpretation is being done by oneself, this is where wiggle room is available.

Being wrong, while interpreting, is when error blindness can occur. The interpretive process, explaining the meaning point of potential divergence between our minds and the world — is where mistakes can sneak in. This is easy to see in others. But will this insight in others be converted to oneself? Not likely.

When looking at oneself, the eye can’t see itself without the help of a mirror. When looking inside oneself, to know oneself, Peter Senge says “you need a human mirror, the help of feedback from another person, — a ruthlessly compassionate partner.” 

Well, maybe not ruthless, but a compassionate partner who knows you and will be honest.  

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MINING FOR GOALS

A Process Of Discovering What You Want

“Decision making should be as much a process of discovering goals as achieving goals.” James March

How do you find good goals? In 1974, a very popular book by David Campbell had the title, If you don’t know where you’re going, you’ll probably end up somewhere else. I proposed a corollary to Campbell’s title. “If you always know where you’re going you may never end up somewhere else, and somewhere else may be where you wanted to go but didn’t know it.”

I was then a fan of James March’s writing (and his quote above), and my first paradoxical principle of creative decision making was: “Be focused and flexible about what you want”, know what you want but don’t be sure. There has always been a lot of warning about getting what you want. For example: Getting to where you want to go may be worse than not getting there; be careful what you wish for, you may get it. “The only thing worse than not getting what you want is getting it,” G. B. Shaw. What you want is your future goal. This blog is about discovering this goal, “goal mining.” 

My advice has been: “Use goals to guide you not govern you.” Angeles Arrien put it this way: “Be open to outcome, not attached.” Using goals to govern you is like putting blinders on horses’ eyes. Horses eyes, on the side of their heads, work well for seeing the periphery. Blinders keep them focused on the destination, so they aren’t distracted by the periphery of the journey. In the same way, a zoom lens keeps you focused and a wide-angle lens helps you to be flexible. Using goals to govern you is like using a zoom lens. Knowing what you want should be flexible. If you are governed by your destination, you may miss the journey. You need to be able to be distracted (without blinders) in order to see the roses along the way. 

One way not to be governed by goals is to follow James March’s recommendation: “Treat goals as hypotheses.” A hypothesis is an assumption, something taken to be  true for the purpose of investigation. This means two things: you are not sure and you need to explore. 

Being focused and flexible helps you broaden your experiences, expand your interests, and perhaps lead to new goals and new decisions. Using goals to guide you not govern you avoids missing life’s journey. Treating a goal as a hypothesis may prevent being attached. March also asks: “Why are we more reluctant to ask how human beings might find “good goals” than we are to ask how they might make “good decisions”. ” Finding good goals (wants) and making good decisions should not be incompatible. 

Making good decisions involves what you want, what you know, what you believe and what you do. Actually, what you want, what you know, and what you believe, determine what you decide to do. This is why: “Decision making should be as much a process of discovering goals as achieving goals,” James March.

“Many men go fishing all their lives without knowing it is not the fish they are after.”

Henry David Thoreau

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OBJECTIVITY

 Does It Exist?

Objectivity is a subject’s delusion that observing can be done without him, Heinz von Forester.

By definition objectivity is the quality or character of being objectivelack of favoritism toward one side or another; freedom from bias. Subjective is: based on or influenced by personal feelings, tastes, or opinions. Subjectivity is the quality of existing in someone’s mind rather than the external world.

According to quantum mechanics there is no such thing as objectivity. We cannot eliminate ourselves from the picture. We are part of nature, and when we study nature there is no way around the fact that nature is studying itself, Gary Zukav.

It seems we could say that we are subjective humans, not objective. One hundred and one cognitive biases have been identified, which interfere with our objectivity. This is important for each one of us to acknowledge. Personal feelings, tastes, or opinions, of course, are always with us. The problem is, these subjective feelings are usually not part of our awareness.

When we say, “Beliefs Are Us”, we are saying we are what we believe. Beliefs become behavior. If objectivity is freedom from bias, then we are probably not often objective. This has been the theme pf much of my writing. And yet I believe it needs to continue   to be said.

Because of the political events in America today, about the subjectivity of the justice system, I can’t resist discussing the recent nomination of a Supreme Court justice. I don’t think anyone believes that the justices of the Supreme Court are objective. Because we all know how important it is who appoints them, a republican or a democratic president. “Blind Justice” is an illusion. Justice is in the eye of the beholder.

Objectivity is not expected from the Supreme Court; or from any court. We constantly identify conservative and liberal judges. How can a conservative judge or a liberal judge be objective?

To me this is amazing. How do we expect justice in America be achieved, if judges are conservative or liberal? A judge is what he or she believes. We have grown accustomed to subjectivity and bias in our justice system. And in politics today.

We humans are what we believe; we have to get used to the fact that all of us, republicans, democrats, judges, presidents, police, enemies, friends, relatives, etc. etc. are not objective. Over 100 cognitive biases have been identified. A cognitive bias is a systematic error in thinking that impacts one’s choices and judgments. These biases influence our perception of the world and can lead us to poor decision-making. We all have them, including politicians, judges, relatives, neighbors, you and me. The hard part will be to include ourselves in this list. Because: Objectivity, freedom from belief bias, is a subject’s delusion of humans.

What we believe is the most powerful option of all, Norman Cousins.

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VISION TESTING

 How Do You Examine Your Beliefs?

We prefer to believe what we prefer to be true, paraphrased from a Francis Bacon quote

My Process of Illumination (POI) examination method is “Vision Testing,” which involves looking at yourself in order to know yourself. Your vision (the way you see things) involves your “mind’s eye”, the belief system behind your worldview. Your way of seeing, just like your eyes, should have regular visual check-ups for keeping it in shape.

An optometry metaphor helps explain. Optometry is defined as, “the art or profession of examining the eye for defects and faults of refraction and prescribing correctional lenses or exercises but not drugs or surgery.”  Defects in mind’s eye vision involve distortion, blind spots, biases, self-deception, pre-judgments, jumping to conclusions, plus others.

 The eye can’t see itself without a mirror, and you can’t see yourself without a “mind’s eye mirror”. You can’t know yourself by yourself.  A mirror is defined as, “something that faithfully reflects or gives a true picture of something else.” The Vision testing method of the POI actually involves several “mirrors” and several self-reflection questions

Rear-view mirror: Looking at the past

  • Where did this belief come from?  Did you invent it? Did you discover it or adopt it? How long have you had it?

Mirror-on-the wall: Looking at your “self”

  • Is this belief up-to date? Is it well-grounded? Is it an asset or a liability to your happiness? Is it a barrier or a bridge for your seeing?  How do you know?

Crystal ball mirror: Looking at the future

  • What are possible positive consequences? What are possible negative consequences? (Long and short term?)  Is your judgment possibly biased?

Window mirror: Looking at the present

  • What are possible alternative beliefs that you might consider? Where might you look to find them? What are their possible positive and negative consequences?

The Vision Test “mirror questions” are intended to get you ready to choose your future belief and assume ownership of it (responsibility for it). It can be employed when you want to pay attention by questioning certain beliefs behind your way of seeing.

Your beliefs are important to you, to me, to others and to our future. They form your perspective from which you see and interpret the world. You never leave home without them.

Vision Testing reminds you that the way you see things is the way you see things, and it is influenced by your beliefs.  Believing is seeing and seeing is doing. The Vision Test is offered as a way of looking at the way you look at things — as a way of seeing the way you see things, and a way of choosing what to believe.

It is said that beliefs are the ties that blind you and guide you,  Unknown

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DECIDING ISN’T WHAT IT USED TO BE

And Probably Never Was

A person’s ability to choose, as well as his right to choose, is the essence of freedom. How well he learns the skills involved in the process of choosing well determines his power of self-determination, his freedom of choice. Paul Woodring, 1957

I believe it is hard to think of many things in life that are more important than decision making. But we are never taught how to decide. Growing up we are required to learn reading, writing, math, science and history — but not decision making. I spent most of my professional life (over 50 years) trying to change that. Yet today I don’t think many, if any, public schools have such a requirement, although decision making workshops are sometimes offered to adults.

During all those 50 years, much has been learned about the process of deciding. Two Nobel Prizes have been awarded for new knowledge in making up one’s mind.

  • In today’s complex world individuals cannot possibly process or even obtain all the information they need to make fully rational decisions (1978, Herbert Simon, Bonded Rationality). However, many don’t yet accept that.
  • Human decision-making under uncertainty, left to its own devises, is apt to engage in a number of fallacies and systematic errors, so if we want to make better decisions in our personal lives and as a society, we ought to be aware of these biases and seek workarounds (2002, Daniel Kahneman, Prospect Theory). Self-awareness of personal biases is not yet very common.
  • And James March, of Stanford, pointed out: Human choice behavior is at least as much a process for discovering goals as for acting on them. If you always know what you want, how do you ever find new wants? Making decisions can be for the purpose to discover as well as to achieve.

My takeaway from all of this: Decision making isn’t what it use to be — and probably never was. We are finally realizing that in today’s complex, constantly changing, risky  reality humans are not well equipped to make rational, logical, coherent decisions We are not as rational and coherent as we think we are. And the world is not as rational and coherent as we think it is. Once again this means self-awareness is the key. Not just being aware of, but understanding our biases, our decision fallacies and our systematic errors. This has been the theme of my Process of Illumination and Positive Uncertainty writing.

We now know that we employ two types of decision processes: intuitive thinking, which comes from our experience and expertise and rational thinking which comes from decision rules and prescribed procedures, called Type 1 and Type 2 by Daniel Kahneman, in his book, Thinking Fast and Slow, 2011. Bottom line: We need to understand that we are seldom rational decision makers and we need to seek workarounds (workaround: a plan or method to circumvent a problem). We need creative strategies for overcoming our decision making limitations.

What you decide and how you decide is up to you. Because: You can’t avoid decision making because Not to decide is to decide (Harvey Cox). Your right to decide may be  determined by something else; your ability to decide is usually determined by you.

Science can assist us in becoming more skillful choosers, but at its core, choice remains an art.  Sheena Iyengar, in The Art of Choosing, 2010

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DECIDOPHOBIA

The Fear of Making Decisions

Humanity craves but dreads autonomy, Walter Kaufman.

My title and subtitle come from Walter Kaufman’s 1973 book, Without Guilt and Justice, with the subtitle, From Decidophobia to Autonomy. Decidophobia could also be thought of as the fear of Being Wrong, which is the title of a 2010 book by Kathryn Schulz.

Kaufman says: The autonomous individual does not treat his own conclusions and decisions as authoritative but chooses with his eyes open, and then keeps his eyes open. The fear of being wrong causes people to fear deciding. But as Harvey Cox points out, not to decide is to decide. In other words, you can’t avoid making decisions. Making decisions is part of every day life. Which means that you can’t avoid autonomy: the ability to make your own decisions without being controlled by anyone else.

In Being Wrong, English philosopher Roger Bacon was quoted as saying: All error could be chalked up to just four problems: The tendency to cover up one’s own ignorance with the pretense of knowledge; the persuasive power of authority; blind adherence to custom; and the influence of popular opinion. Three hundred years later, Francis Bacon (no relation) called his four sources of human error: The idol of the Tribe, widespread cognitive habits; the idol of the Cave, chauvinism; the idol of the Marketplace, the influence of public opinion; and the idol of the Theater, false doctrines.

The sources of being wrong are varied and found everywhere, coming from both social forces and individual cognitive ones. Nietzsche points out a common individual one: A very popular error: having the courage of one’s convictions; rather it is a matter of having the courage for an attack on one’s convictions.  Decision strategies that preclude uninhibited self-criticism are not helpful.

I can’t help pointing out that having an attitude of positive uncertainty would help in this very popular error. Positive uncertainty would help you to realize that your conviction may not be true. And therefore, in need of review. The fear of making decisions, because you might be wrong, is an erroneous fear, because you can’t avoid deciding. And not to decide could also be wrong.

Because we don’t experience, remember, track, or retain mistakes as a feature of our inner landscape, wrongness always seems to come at us from left field — that is, from outside of us. But reality could hardly be more different. Error is an inside job. Nobody but you can choose to believe your own beliefs, Schutz.

The fear of being wrong, decidophobia, would be a limiting factor in deciding. Decision making is usually risky. It often requires choosing an option that you believe, but do not know for sure, will lead to a desirable outcome.  Deciding cannot be avoided. To decide and not to decide are both decisions, and both could be wrong. What I would recommend, of course, is to decide with positive uncertainty. In this case being wrong is not a catastrophe, because it was always possible and partly expected.

If at first you don’t succeed, you are running about average, M. H. Alderson.

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PRETENDING

Believing What You Want to Believe

You don’t get anything worth getting by pretending to know things you don’t know,

Sam Harris.

How many times can a man turn his head, pretending he just doesn’t see? Blowin’ In the Wind, Bob Dylan. How many times can politicians or the voters turn their heads? The answer isn’t blowing in the wind; the answer is blowing in modern day politics. Pretending describes Trumpism, the beliefs of the current President of the USA, and his followers. And it is a description of the confirmation bias: the tendency to interpret new evidence as confirmation of one’s existing beliefs. The confirmation bias describes our underlying tendency to notice, focus on, and give greater attention to what we already believe — what we want to believe.

Truth is in the I of the beholder. You don’t have to pass a test to prove that what you believe is true. If you believe it is true, then for you, it is true. And what you believe determines what you do. Beliefs become behavior.

I point this out to help explain our current president’s behavior. Trumpism is what the president believes on any particular moment on any particular day about any particular subject, Ron Christie, a republican analyst. And Trumpism explains Donald Trump. What Trump believes any particular moment on any particular day about any particular subject, may not be the same yesterday or tomorrow. And you can’t be sure what Trump believes today by listening to what he says today. Reminder: this is the President of The United States of America, and called “The Leader of the Free World”.

Republicans in Congress pretend President Trump is telling the truth, pretend that he is leading this nation, pretend that he is the man that should continue to lead us in the future. Political skepticism would be a conservative virtue. When will they ever learn?

Right now there isn’t an optimistic answer. If they haven’t learned by now, will they ever learn? The current evidence to unlearn is powerful. The hope is that republicans who are not in Congress (voters) might be learning. And there is recent evidence that even some republicans in Congress are beginning to learn. But don’t expect a complete republican ending to pretending.

Why abandon a belief merely because it ceases to be true?  Robert Frost.

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DONALD DOESN’T DOUBT

Trump Does Positive Certainty

One of Trump’s strengths, grows out of the fact that “people hate ambiguity,” and if there is one thing Trump is not, it’s ambiguous, Bicchieri Cristina.

It is obvious that Trump is never uncertain; there is never ambiguity. He is always sure of what he says today. Tomorrow he may change his mind and say something different, but then tomorrow is certain. Things are “true” one day and they are “untrue” the next day, but on both days he will have the same belief of certainty. Doubt doesn’t seem to exist in Trump’s mind. Doubt is the beginning, not the end of wisdom, George Iles.

The reason this works for Trump is that people don’t like uncertainty or ambiguity. Trump is never uncertain. Trump doesn’t say maybe; he says yes or no, one day or another. But the next day, he doesn’t admit he said yes yesterday; it is definitely no today. Some people (Trump supporters) seem to prefer positive certainty over truth. The truth is often tentative, and who wants to be tentative? Truth could be bad news; and who wants bad news?

Trump’s ability to convey certainty, even when saying things that are demonstrably false, is critically important in persuading supporters to believe and vote for him. He is always sure of what he says, when he sends a message, he is always sure, Bicchieri noted. He may change his mind and say “things are black one day and they are white” the next day, but on both days he will have the same strength of certainty.

In an email, Bicchieri cited research that shows: political conservatism being negatively correlated with tolerance to uncertainty. This supports, she said, the general notion that conservative voters would enjoy Trump’s simple ‘certain’ declarations about the world. So what does this mean about the coming election? It means truth will have to prevail.

Will it? During the first three years in office, Trump tallied over 20,000 falsehoods. That was just the beginning. This means that in the coming election Trump will continue with falsehoods; probably with acceleration. This also means that uncertainty needs to become acceptable. The need to know causes people to dislike uncertainty. However, when truth is unlikely, uncertainty is needed. However, people will believe to be true what they want to be true. Trump has remained popular with his voters with falsehoods galore. Can this strategy keep him popular? Maybe.

The leader of the free world needs to be someone who is capable making up their mind by acknowledging uncertainty and the benefit of doubt. Truth matters, but truth may not be known. I don’t think I have to remind my readers of the many benefits of doubt. But I will. To doubt is a method. It gets you to ask questions, to inquire, to wonder. Questions lead to answers; certainty leads nowhere. I think you can say that voting for Trump is voting for someone who never doubts, never is uncertain, and who is always positively certain. Truth is what Trump says it is. So far, Trump is certain about his falsehoods and mis-leading claims. Trump is positive about his certainty. He says a lot of things that aren’t true. He is either lying or ignorant. Which is worse?

Mark Twain Explains Donald Trump:

To succeed in life, you need two things: ignorance and confidence.

The Elephant In The Room: Narcissistic personality disorder.

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AMBIGUITY AVERSION

And Some Ambiguous Advice

Today’s puzzle is to figure out what to do, when we don’t know what to do.  Jamie Holmes in Nonsense, The Power of Not Knowing, 2015.

 I believe yesterday’s information anxiety is being replaced by today’s ambiguity aversion. The ever-widening gap between what we know and don’t know is the cause. Today, more and more information has meant more and more uncertainty. And what we understand is becoming more and more unclear, indefinite and vague, which resembles the definition of ambiguous: open to more than one interpretation, doubtful or uncertain.

Being doubtful and uncertain is not popular, in spite of my promoting positive uncertainty. The more you know, the more you realize you don’t know; and we don’t like not knowing. Ambiguity is defined as: doubtfulness or uncertainty as regards interpretation. Doubtful, uncertain, ambiguous, are not popular with the human mind.

Today, what we understand is becoming harder to understand and you could say  uncertain and ambiguous. Seeing ambiguity and uncertainty as a normal part of life today is liberating, beneficial and non-threatening, and it leads to unlearning and learning. Knowledge, understanding and beliefs are learned and can be unlearned; change happens. Unlearning what we have been taught will be the hard part. People have a hard time giving up what they know. Jamie Holmes reminds us: In an increasingly complex, unpredictable world, what matters most isn’t IQ, willpower, or confidence in what we know. It’s how we deal with what we don’t understand.

Ambiguity aversion interferes with positive uncertainty. Ambiguity and uncertainty imply  not knowing. Humans have a need to know. When we don’t know what to do (uncertainty), we have a hard time figuring out what to do, to paraphrase Jamie Holmes. Deciding with uncertainty is difficult. This is when it is tempting to pretend we know what to do; and when we need to revisit Mark Twain: It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you in trouble, it’s what you now for sure that ain’t so.

Since I have been reading and also writing about uncertainty and doubt, this temps me to share some ambiguous advice: Learn To Learn And Then To Unlearn

We must continually unlearn much of what we have learned and learn to learn what we have not been taught. R D Laing

To attain knowledge, add things every day. To attain wisdom, remove things every day.  Lao Tse in the Tao Te Ching

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INQUIRY

A Search For Information

Inquiry is fatal to certainty. Will Durant

During the current coronavirus crisis, Donald Trump has answers; Dr. Fauci has questions. Having the answer too soon, as Donald Trump wants, and as Dr. Fauci warns us, is not the best solution. Asking more questions is the best strategy. The surest way to lose the truth is to pretend that you already possess it, Gordon Allport.

Asking questions has always been a virtue of positive uncertainty. Asking questions is being curious. Questions lead to new possibilities, new learning, and to creativity. Certainty leads to nowhere new. Today’s environment is full of questions: personal, social, economic, political, etc. Asking no questions, only giving answers, could be dangerous in today’s environment.

People like certainty, not uncertainty. People like answers, not questions. Today, there is danger in rushing to answers, seeking certainty. I am not a medical, economic, social or political expert. I have studied decision making and believe deciding to answer today’s questions too soon is dangerous. Procrastination sometimes works but isn’t the best answer. Asking questions is. James Ryan says questions are like keys. They can open the mind to new ideas. The fact that inquiry is fatal to certainty explains its virtue. You could also say, certainty is fatal to inquiry.

Open-mindedness is a prerequisite of inquiry. And open-mindedness has been a theme of my writing. A closed mind has no door for questions. This is what sometimes makes closed-mindedness and certainty attractive. Questions get in the way of certainty. But doubt leads to questions. Uncertainty doesn’t feel good; certainty does. Science is a culture of doubt/uncertainty. The scientific method involves hypothesizing, testing and retesting. You could say that science is also a culture of inquiry. The scientific method in a nut shell: Understand and frame the problem, observe; hypothesize (or imagine); test and reduce; and repeat, Maria Konnikova in her book, MASTERMIND, How to Think Like Sherlock Holmes, 2013.

Science, doubt, uncertainty and inquiry are all related, and part of learning. Certainty is not part of learning. Some synonyms of inquiry: investigation, analysis, examination, research. These are all sources of learning. Science at its best is an open-minded system of inquiry, not a belief system, Robert Sheldrake. Today’s current uncertain environment is full of the need for questions: personal, social, economic, political, etc. Answers put an end to inquiry. Inquiry puts an end to certainty. To raise new questions, new possibilities, to regard old problems from a new angle, requires creative imagination and marks real advance in science,  Albert Einstein. 

Truth exists, and it is discovered through inquiry.  Asking questions is the result of uncertainty and doubt. My advice: Increase your learning by asking more questions.

 You do not need to be a world-class scientist or artist to appreciate that the world contains mysteries and puzzles, or even to solve some of them. You just need to look around and ask questions. James Ryan

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